Home and away: The economic side effects of flexible working
29 Jun 2021
The enormous increase in working-from-home (WFH) brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has not hit productivity as hard as employers had initially feared. In fact, some companies report that remote-working tools such as chat apps and videoconferencing have actually helped staff become more productive. For their part, many employees say they do not miss the stress and cost of the daily commute.
Even though vaccination rates are rising and the need for social distancing is diminishing, both sides are keen to preserve what they see as more efficient ways of working. This poses new and interesting questions about where and how we’ll work and live in the years ahead.
This significantly increased flexibility is also likely to have wider social ramifications, including greater employee diversity, a better work-life balance and larger talent pools, as location and in-office presence become less important1.
Our Research analysts have identified three trends in how we live, work, and shop which could have a lasting impact on real estate.
Flexible living: for many, there is no going back
COVID-19 is likely to lead to increased flexibility for both employers and employees, allowing people to work when and where they want, with the working week split between home and the office.
The findings of a Barclays-YouGov survey2 showed that about 60% of employees expect to work partially or exclusively from home, compared with fewer than 40% before the pandemic. Employers are twice as likely to encourage staff to spend part of their week working from home, on average expecting staff to work from home two days per week.
Why employers support staff working from home
Source: YouGov survey, Barclays Research
New consumer behaviours could spell good news for providers of goods and services:
Greater focus on the home: During the pandemic, many people spent less on services, holidays, commuting, restaurants and bars and therefore have bigger savings pots. They are likely to spend this on buying (if they were previously renting) or improving their homes, which could go hand in hand with greater demand for DIY products, electronics, and home fitness equipment. Despite rising mortgage rates, US homebuilders have reported a rapid rise in demand for new homes since the end of 2020, in both suburbs and cities.
Increased car use: People may drive more, as longer commutes are replaced by shorter but more frequent excursions.
Bleisure travel: More comfort with remote work is likely to create demand for “bleisure” travel as people combine business trips with leisure or take advantage of WFH’s “work from anywhere” flexibility.
Flexible offices: time for smaller spaces?
Office demand is likely to be 10-20% lower if a part office/part home working week becomes the norm. But offices will remain important as gathering places for social interactions, meetings, and training, rather than the process- and task-driven spaces of the past. This is likely to require new layouts: more meeting rooms, break-out areas, collaboration spaces and desk-sharing areas, along with permanent desks for those not working under part home/part office hybrid models.
How employers are dealing with the new hybrid work model
Source: YouGov survey, Barclays Research
Incremental office demand likely to be lower: A growing workforce may no longer lead to an increased need for square footage, as new employees embrace the hybrid WFH model. This could break down the longstanding correlation between growth in employment and demand for office-space.
Smaller, smarter, greener: Employers will likely gravitate towards smaller, modern, high-quality and environmentally-friendly spaces. This was a trend already evident before COVID, but may now accelerate.
Location will be vital. Early on in the pandemic, there was speculation that office demand might shift to the suburbs, but our analysts believe those predictions were misplaced. As economies reopen, urban offices are recovering at a faster pace than suburban ones, and now have roughly the same amount of traffic as their pre-COVID baselines. And most critically: the centres of cities remain the easiest places to access for most people.
Flexible retail: bricks-and-mortar businesses will have to adapt
In 2020, several weaker retailers closed their doors, and even survivors reduced their locations as the drift to e-commerce was suddenly accelerated by social distancing. The most severe closures may be behind us, but there is still a significant change coming in how retailers operate. In the US, more than half of sectors increased their share of online spend from mid-March 2021 through to the end of April 2021.
More than half of sectors posted a year-on-year increase in online spend share in March-April 2021
Source: Barclays Research
Change of use: Physical stores will become smaller and take on new roles: showroom, brand enhancer, final-mile distribution node. Those roles will require different structures and locations, so more churn is likely.
Presence on the ground: Other features such as buy online/pick up in store, and using third parties for same-day delivery are also competitive advantages. Store presence, in fact, is such a vital part of the online experience that many retailers have found that when they close physical shops in a region, they can lose more than 70% of their run-rate online sales in that region (plus, of course, 100% of their offline sales).
End of the mall? The average mall now has a store vacancy rate of c.13%, putting them in danger of seeing a downward spiral of falling rents and tenant exits. However, malls that thrived before the pandemic are likely to have a better outlook.
Little chance of turning back
One of the largest effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the enormous increase in flexible working, which is likely to have a lasting impact on how people use their home, office and shops. Some of the effects of these shifts are already visible. Offices in urban areas are beginning to be repurposed and retail stores are taking on new roles and functions. Other impacts will become apparent over time. But it is clear that flexibility and adaptability will be key to ensure real estate caters to the needs of individuals and businesses.
1 This is already becoming apparent: global insurer Zurich has seen an increase in women applying for and obtaining senior jobs since it introduced flexible arrangements for all jobs.
2 Survey undertaken in November 2020 of 4,300 office-based workers and >1,500 senior decision makers across six countries to gain a better understanding of how employees and employers view a return to the office post-pandemic
Read the full report
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The pandemic fuelled predictions of the demise of city centres. Our Data & Investment Sciences teams use geolocation data to measure the geo-gravity exerted by city centres during the pandemic, with some surprising results.
The Flexible Future: Reshaping how we live and work
Download the ninth installment of our Impact Series (PDF, 3.5MB).
About the analysts
Ryan Preclaw is the head of Investment Sciences, a group that creates investment insights by combining alternative data, data science, and traditional research. Previously, he was a Director in Credit Strategy, where he focused on special situations, event-driven strategies, and industries facing fundamental transitions. Ryan has also worked as a coverage banker in Barclays' Communications and Media group. Prior to joining Barclays, Ryan worked as an economist at NERA Economic Consulting and London Economics International. Ryan received his M.B.A. from the University of Chicago in 2008, his M.A. from Western University in 2001, and his B.A. from the University of Alberta in 2000.
Paul May joined Barclays in October 2018. He is a Director and Co-Heads the Barclays European Real Estate Equity Research team. For eight years prior to joining Barclays he was the senior real estate buy-side analyst at BMO Global Asset Management and, before that, a research analyst at Killik and Co. Paul is a CFA charterholder and graduated with a first class degree in Management and Administrative studies from Aston University.
Sander Bunck joined Barclays in October 2017. He is a Director, and Co-Heads the European Real Estate Research team. Prior to joining Barclays he was a real estate buy-side analyst at BMO Global Asset Management and, before that, an analyst at LaSalle Investment Management. Sander holds a Masters degree in Finance and Economics and has passed both level 1&2 from the CFA charterholder program.
Priya Ohri-Gupta is a Managing Director and Fixed Income Research Analyst at Barclays covering the High Grade Retail and Consumer sectors. She joined Barclays in May 2010 after spending one year in the Bank Supervision group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Prior to that, Ms. Ohri-Gupta was the Senior Analyst covering High Grade Food, Beverage, Tobacco and Consumer Products at Lehman Brothers. Before moving to Fixed Income Research in 2007, she spent seven years in Equity Research, focused on Retail Hardlines at Lehman Brothers and Cosmetics, Household and Personal Care Products at Banc of America Securities. Since 2011, Institutional Investor's annual All-America Fixed Income Research Survey has ranked Ms. Ohri-Gupta's team #1 or #2 for Investment Grade Consumer Products and Investment Grade Retailing. She holds a BA in Economics and South Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley and an MBA in Finance and Management from NYU's Stern School of Business. She is also a CFA charterholder.
About the Data & Investment Science Teams
Leveraging alternative data, machine learning, and advanced empirical methods such as causal inference, Barclays’ Data Science and Investment Sciences teams work to provide institutional clients with next-level insights and actionable ideas.
The Data Science team focuses on developing data science methods and building the technology infrastructure to work with data at a large scale, while the Investment Sciences team integrates data science into the investment Research process across all asset classes. The team has specialty in analyzing disparate data sets from geolocation, to credit card transactions, to text and natural language, to jobs, to news and social media.
Clients benefit from data science-informed Research written in collaboration with a wide range of Research analysts, especially equity and credit fundamental analysts, as well as proprietary algorithms and products that are derived from alternative data.