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Ian Tew, Head of G10 FX Spot Trading, provides commentary on the anticipated currency movements in the run-up to the Autumn Statement
Interest has returned for the pound. Going into the ‘Mini Budget’, positions were bearish with a negative narrative for the UK lacking credibility and stability, subsequently resulting in the volatile trading of sterling. Going into the Autumn Statement, we have seen a big reduction in the negative narrative, with short positions reducing significantly.
The austere nature of the Autumn Statement is likely to impact growth. Sterling against the dollar has been a dollar trade, but the dollar has given back some of its gains in recent weeks.
Volume is a good indicator of conviction, and the volumes we saw post-Mini Budget were two to three times more than the 90-day average. Whilst volumes continue to remain high, participation rates are lower and the focus is on risk reduction rather than new additional risk.
About the expert
Ian Tew
Head of G10 FX Spot Trading