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    CNBC INTERVIEW

    UK Autumn Statement: Significance for the UK Market

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    Contributor: Stephen Dainton

    17 Nov 2022

    authorImage authorImage

    Contributor: Stephen Dainton

    17 Nov 2022

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    Stephen Dainton, Co-Head of Global Markets, talks about the significance of the Autumn Statement for the UK market.

    The last eight weeks has seen fiscal imprudence. Its important for the UK Chancellor to lay out a clear path of fiscal prudence. The £50-60bn deficit the UK Government plans to cover, which is about 1.5% debt to GDP, is going to be addressed in the Autumn Statement, bringing confidence back to the UK Gilt market.

    Commentary from the Governor of the Bank of England highlights the commitment to reducing inflation. There is a general expectation of a further 50bps rise in December.

    Over the past few weeks, the UK has seen a more responsible attitude to the fiscal position. The gilt market has reacted with a level of confidence returning to the bond market. Barclays’ Research department anticipates a five-quarter recession from Q3 22 to Q4 23. Interest rates are expected to peak in Q2 23.

    UK inflation is expected to peak between Q4 22 and Q1 23. Any increase in interest rates will likely soften moving forward. The UK was expecting a much larger rate rise as a result for the Mini Budget, which was lessened with the arrival of the Hunt administration.  

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    About the expert

    Stephen Dainton

    Co-Head Global Markets

    Stephen Dainton is Co-Head of Global Markets and a member of the Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) Management Team, based in London. He is primarily responsible for Distribution, Senior Relationship Management (SRM) and Financing. Stephen has over 30 years of experience in global markets across trading, sales, risk, capital markets, structuring and research. He joined Barclays in September 2017 as Global Head of Equities and Co-Head of Markets. Prior to Barclays, Stephen spent 14 years at Credit Suisse, where he served as Co-Head of Global Markets for the EMEA region. He joined Credit Suisse in 2003 in the Equity Division and went on to become Head of Equities for the region, before assuming his global markets role. Previously, Stephen worked at Goldman Sachs as Head of US and International Equities, based in New York. He has also held roles in Equities at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in both London and New York. He graduated from The University of Exeter.

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